The paper “Short technology cycle time and firm innovation: Evidence from China”, co-authored by Professor Shi Junwei of the School of Business Administration (SBA) at Zhongnan University of Economics and Law (ZUEL) and his doctoral student Zhang Jiajia, was published online in Research Policy, a world-class journal in the field of innovation studies. This marks the first time ZUEL has published in Research Policy as the first-affiliated institution, representing a significant milestone in the university’s research on innovation and the economy.
The study demonstrates that, in the context of technological catch-up, enterprises focusing on short technology cycle time play a crucial role in enhancing firm innovation performance. From the perspective of latecomer firms, the authors developed a theoretical model to explain the mechanism of short technology cycles. Building on the logic of dynamic capability accumulation and environmental uncertainty, the paper constructs a formal conceptual framework incorporating factors such as human capital, R&D investment, environmental uncertainty, and dynamic competition.
Using panel data from listed companies in China between 1990 and 2022, the study provides several findings: (1) latecomer firms focusing on shorter technology cycles are more likely to improve innovation performance; (2) human capital and R&D investment significantly reinforce this positive effect; (3) the effect is more pronounced under higher uncertainty, greater competition, in high-tech and reverse-engineering-intensive industries, and among private, capital-intensive, and early-stage firms. These results provide novel theoretical insights and direct empirical evidence for how firms in emerging economies may achieve technological catch-up by deeply engaging in technologies with shorter cycles.
Research Policy is widely recognized as a top-tier international journal in innovation research. It is rated ABS 4★ (the highest level) by the Chartered Association of Business Schools (CABS) and is listed among the FT50 journals by the Financial Times. The journal’s 2025 impact factor is 8.0, ranking it as a Q1 SSCI journal in the field.
Paper information
Shi, J.W., Zhang, J.J., 2025. Short technology cycle time and firm innovation: Evidence from China. Research Policy 54(8), 105305.
Link to the article
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048733325001349
About the author
Professor Shi Junwei is a doctoral supervisor at the SBA of ZUEL, Director of the Center for Modern Industrial Economics Research, Vice President of the Hubei Provincial Society of Industrial Economics, and Deputy Director of the Committee on Artificial Intelligence and Institutional Development of the China Society of Industrial Economics. His long-term research interests include innovation strategies, firm competitiveness, and industrial policy.